A Stronger Science, Technology + Innovation Agenda: 6 Areas of Focus

“Science, technology and innovation (STI) are universally recognized as key drivers for economic growth, improving prosperity, and essential components for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)”  UN Conference on Trade and Development (2019)

A few months ago I wrote down some thoughts and questions after being inspired by political events where I live (Guernsey) and internationally (e.g. US). In both jurisdictions, the balance of power has dramatically shifted for different reasons but both against a backdrop of major crises including health (COVID), rising inequality, and skills gaps.

In essence, I was trying to think through answering 2 key questions for the new Government and ecosystem players (e.g.businesses, investors, educators etc): what are some key STI areas of focus, and what questions would I ask?

I have since shared the memo with various stakeholders in the ecosystem, and now I thought it would make sense to post it publicly here. If you have any feedback, be sure to let me know

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Research, analysis and policy development opportunities and questions for the new Government and ecosystem players (e.g. businesses, investors, educators etc)

Business case for an STI economy: the importance of ‘science, technology and innovation’ for Guernsey’s future in driving economic growth and improved prosperity for all citizens 

  • Key STI trends, opportunities and challenges 
  • What is STI/digital, why important, global best practices
  • Why important for Gsy?
  • Defining and measuring Guernsey’s existing STI/digital economy 
  • Benefits and impacts to economy, society, prosperity and infrastructure 
  • Jobs, skills, human capital and education
  • Role of stakeholders e.g. education, govt, business, people etc
  • Building blocks, what is needed? E.g. 
    • Policy and regulatory frameworks
    • Institutional setting and governance
    • Entrepreneurial ecosystems and access to finance
    • Human capital
    • Technical/ICT & R&D infrastructure
  • Relevance of Sustainability, Green Finance, Solar/Wind, FinTech, RiskTech, RegTech, GovTech
  • Role of tax policy, skills, FDI, govt, business etc 
  • Strategic options for Guernsey 

Resources – A FRAMEWORK for Science, Technology and Innovation Policy Reviews: UN Conference on Trade and Development 

http://www.oecd.org/innovation/inno/

OECD (2020) A Common Framework for Measuring The Digital Economy 

ICT Infrastructure: Reshaping SURE Telecoms as a strategic asset to benefit the future of Guernsey and investigating the promise of new tech e.g. fibre, 5G etc

  • What is SURE’s current investment model, business strategy etc with regard to infrastructure, network performance and speeds, pricing and tariffs etc
  • How does it fit with Guernsey’s requirements, strategy and vision for the future? 
  • To what extent does the existing relationship with Sure/Cicra/others need to be reshaped?
  • What is the overall technology vision of Guernsey? E.g. the most digitally-enabled small island economy in the world? KPIs? 
  • What are the existing telco infrastructure challenges and market opportunities? E.g. connectivity, fibre, 5G etc
  • What are the key ICT indicators/KPIs for Guernsey?
  • How good or bad is the current network/asset performance? Where is the evidence? 
  • To what extent does Sure need to be incentivised to improve performance?
  • How will that benefit Guernsey? E.g. access, education, WFH, FDI, economic growth etc
  • What are the different levers to pull that can assist that?
  • What are the roles of the key stakeholders and to what extent does this need reshaping? E.g. Cicra, 
  • What are some example ownership models from around the world that should be considered?

Resource – 14 Key ICT Indicators

Smarter e-Government: Transforming public sector services to improve efficiency and effectiveness

  • Agilisys IT procurement: What was the promise vs reality, where is the accountability and island benefit (e.g. jobs, knowledge etc), what is the road ahead, and what needs to change 
    • What is the current status of the Agilysys IT procurement, what are the benefits (e.g. local jobs) vs costs, what is the roadmap
    • Current status and how successful has it been, why?
    • What was the scope of the original deal that was signed? How did that change over time? 
    • How much has been spent by the SOG?
    • What have been the benefits? E.g. local jobs, tax payer savings etc
    • How is the vendor managed, programme governed, quality assurance provided, risks/issues etc 
    • Strategic options and recommendations 
    • Role of new ways of working and thinking e.g. agile, design, lean
  • e-Gov/Future Digital Services
    • What is the latest vision and roadmap forward? Is it good enough?
    • In 2017 FDS was championed with a delayed and time-consuming procurement process which say Agilysys hired – what is the status?
    • What are the roadblocks, challenges vs opportunities 
      • E.g. SOG IT procurement decision-making and processes
    • What can we learn from other e-gov national leaders e.g. Estonia
    • What are the big opportunities/challenges?
    • What are the areas of focus?
    • What is required to move forward?
    • What are the costs/benefits?

Digital skills: how to re/upskill the population to be fit for the future 

  • What digital skills does Guernsey need? 
    • E.g. Data Analysis, Business Analysis, CS/Software Engineering, Product Development, Agile, PM, UX/UI, Google etc
  • What courses should be created?
    • For which groups e.g. school-leavers vs mid-level vs later stage 
  • How to deliver this?
  • Best practice models from similar jurisdictions 
  • Who to deliver this?
  • How much to deliver this?

Entrepreneurship and innovation ecosystems: what is the Innovation & Growth vision for Guernsey PLC? How to create a more efficient, attractive and collaborative system: 

  • What new tax policies, incentives and regulatory changes are needed to drive the captial/FDI and other behaviours? E.g. EIS
  • How to encourage businesses to invest in R&D?
  • How to encourage angels/HNWI/funds/businesses/VC etc reallocate investments into start-ups?
  • Build on my article here – https://andrewessa.com/2020/08/28/digital-ecosystems-tzars-puzzle-pieces-the-halo-effect/
  • What is the Innovation vision for Guernsey PLC
  • Baselining and measurement
    • What is Guernsey’s approach and how effective is it?
    • Strengths/weaknesses
    • Challenges/opportunities
    • Actors in the ecosystem
  • What is best practice in small or island communities and competing off-shore jurisdictions?
    • What have Jersey done? cost/benefit?
    • What can we learn from them and other nations?
    • What could we improve?
    • What needs to happen?
  • Ecosystem pillars: how effective are the current actors and what needs to change 
    • Tax, finance and incentives 
      • The role of tax policy, tax credits, R&D, and other incentives 
      • Access to capital, finance
    • Guernsey Innovation Fund
      • What has been invested in to date?
      • What type of investments and how much?
      • What mix of businesses e.g. local vs overseas, maturity etc
      • What returns, benefits to date?
      • Who is involved in the fund, what governance etc
      • What is success? 
      • How does it compare to other small community or island ‘sovereign’ investment funds?
      • What is ‘best practice’ in this space?
    • Human capital strategies – from cradle to grave 
      • Understanding the digital/skills crisis e.g. PwC report
      • Practical solutions to solve it 
      • Alignment with Guernsey PLC strategic vision 
      • Baselining, what new skills, how to up/reskill, what incentives for businesses and people 
      • Life-long learning 
      • More flexible access to skills and talent 
      • Immigration policies 
    • Digital Greenhouse
      • Current vs future state
      • Cost/benefit
      • Challenges/opportunities
      • Recommendations 
    • Governance 
      • Effectiveness of current system
      • What changes are needed
      • What models, what structure, what responsibilities etc e.g. Guernsey Innovation 
    • Corporate innovation
      • How to incentivise investments in skills and new ventures 
    • International cooperation
      • Role of collaboration including within the Bailiwick 
    • New business opportunities 
      • The role of new ‘market creation innovation’ (MCI) policies- see below
      • Relevance of Sustainability, Green Finance, Solar/Wind, FinTech, RiskTech, RegTech, GovTech
      • Regulatory innovation models e.g. sandboxes 

Resource – OECD Review of Innovation Policy – New Zealand (2007)

Other sample areas of ‘innovation policy’ to explore:

  • Environment: Sustainability, ESG and climate change  
    • What is best practice around the world in small island or communities 
    • What are some potential or viable new business opportunities
    • Assess current state of initiatives (e.g. Green Funds)
    • Evaluate new initiatives e.g. Wind, solar etc
  • International collaboration and trade
    • How important is it to be more market-focused and rethink and prioritise international partnerships/affairs? E.g. Jersey
    • A colleague and partner Chris Brock covers some of this topic in a recent report here
  • Regulatory, governance and risk innovation: to what extent do the various regulatory bodies and related private/public sector organisations (e.g. GFSC, Cicra, TISE, DPO etc) need to adopt a more balanced and innovative approach to regulation and new business? How to accelerate existing initiatives and opportunities? e.g. Green Finance
    • What is the nature of the current approach? 
    • How to balance bureaucracy/risk-adversity in the Guernsey ecosystem but at same time encourage innovation, FDI and new businesses?
    • What are best practice examples of innovative regulatory/risk models from competing or similar jurisdictions or around the world?
    • To what extent could this be useful in Guernsey?
    • How is the wider market evolving and how will this impact Guernsey?
    • What are the pros/cons and opportunities/threats?
    • What new business opportunities a more innovative approaches enable? E.g. FinTech, RegTec
    • What are practical recommendations forward and for which actors 
  • Role of market-creating innovations to drive prosperity AND economic growth (MCI): What is the opportunity for Guernsey to incubate market-creating innovations for local use and export? And how can Guernsey facilitate the development of MCIs across different sectors – e.g. FS, Infrastructure, Transport, Environment etc – for local use and export to improve income inequality and other social/economic benefits? 

Resources:

https://hbr.org/2019/01/cracking-frontier-markets

How To Create Winning Strategies That Reignite Human Potential, Adaptability and Creativity

Yesterday I gave a presentation to a NED Forum event sponsored by Investec. It covers a topic that I think is one of the most important issues for CEOs and Boards today who continue to grapple with the challenges of COVID.

The 3 key objectives for the presentation were to:

  1. Better understand what are some of the key and complex forces at play in organisations due to COVID
  2. How organisations can be more adaptable and resilient to future disruptive change
  3. And how to do this with more humanity using some best practices of a growing new breed of organisations out there

You can view the presentation here or below including the REIGNITE! 2020 Report:

The REIGNITE! 2020 Report

For those interested on more detail, below I have pasted in snippets of the talk including the Introduction.

Enjoy!

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Hello and welcome everyone. Thank you to The NED Forum and Investec for the opportunity to speak here today. My name is Andrew Essa, and today I’m going to cover a topic that I think is one of the most important, if not THE most important, issues for CEOs and Boards today.

And that is:

Not just about turning this COVID crisis into an opportunity

Not just about where CEOs should focus, or where to invest

And not just about what winning strategies to implement to outmanouevure the competition

But more about HOW to do all of this in a way that is also more humane, more trusting and less bureaucratic, and in a way that can unleash the potential and creativity of people to have more impact and more fulfilling work lives

So we will aim to do 3 things here today:

  1. Better understand what are some of the key and complex forces at play in organisations
  2. How organisations can be more adaptable and resilient to future disruptive change
  3. And how to do this with more humanity using some best practices of a growing new breed of organisations out there

Slide 2 – Gary Hamel quote

  • So to bring this quote which I love and also my ‘fascination’ with this topic – I’ll tell you a quick story about ABC Learning Company, based here in Gsy. 
  • Obviously that is not their real name but I came across them in some research I did during Q2 and lockdown. 
  • In the research which later became the REIGNITE 2020 Report – which I’ll introduce shortly – there was so much devastation across sectors including travel, hospitality, retail, construction, manufacturing, and so on. 
  • In fact 50% of the 439 leaders surveyed were in total despair, in terms of closures, restructuring, uncertainty and so on. 
  • However…there was a glimmer of hope!
  • About 10% of businesses were doing extraordinary things. They were using the crisis as an opportunity to reset, rethink, and reinvent. They were pivoting, quickly using technology to launch new offerings, testing new business models, and at the same time becoming more efficient, productive and reducing costs.
  • In terms of ABC Learning, it was a typical lifestyle business providing high school tutors, owned by one person with 5 tutors on the payroll. No online presence, web-site or anything. Business stopped overnight with lockdown, but by rethinking things quickly and using simple online and digital tools – google spreadsheets for CRM and bookings, zoom for delivery of live sessions, stripe for online or over the phone payments, the owner was not only able to quickly survive but doubled revenue during lockdown, hired 10 more tutors on contracts, and created a scalable solution which allowed for recorded training on-demand on popular topics. So better CX, more revenue and profits.
  • So what is interesting here is the combination of human psychology and business strategy during a crisis: so how did the leader reinvent whilst everyone was retreating, what can we learn, and how can we emulate this for our own contexts
  • This is what underpins today’s talk and certainly the REIGNITE 2020 Report which I’ll introduce shortly.

Slide 5 – The Modern Org is Under Attack

  • So the modern organisation is clearly under attack from so many angles. 
  • The pace of change now is exponential and only will increase as further technological convergence happens through digital, AI, automation, analytics and so on
  • Today’s orgs look and feel very similar to how they have always been – command-control, top-down consistency, coordination and standardisation- which is the classic bureaucracy 
  • In US 1983-2019 the bureaucratic workforce – managers and overhead – has doubled in that time-frame VS growth of 50% in all other job categories
  • At same time productivity per OECD has gone down since them
  • Mental health, burnout, anxiety, stress, bullying, politics, discrimiation, harassment etc has skyrocketed 
  • Do we know anyone who is a leader, manager or worker and genuinely feels inspired, trusted, valued and engaged by their organisation every day??
  • We can’t afford it anymore!
  • So the question becomes, is it possible to build organisations that are big and fast, disciplined and empowering, responsive to market shifts yet resilient, efficient and entrepreneurial, and bold and prudent?
  • Many examples of new breeds of organisations successfully operating with 1/2 of bureaucratic load of traditional org
  • Case study – Buurtzorg (page xi)
    • Dutch firm Birdszaard home-health employers 16,000 nurses and home-carers with 2 line managers with a span of control of 1-8000!
    • They do this with dividing into small teams, give them the data they need to be self-managing, connect with a social platform to collaborate to solve problems and collaborate and share best practices, hold deeply accountable with P&Ls
    • Gives all the advantages of bureaucracy with control, consistency and coordination with no drag or overhead

On Digital Business:

  • Speed and scale: Digital and cloud has enabled adaptability at speed and scale;
    • The crisis has shown that rapid change at speed and scale is possible using digital and cloud in the short-term.
  • Increased adoption: Increased adoption of back-end cloud and front-end productivity tools, from e-signature to VC to MS365 to Dropbox etc
  • Effectiveness and benefits: Focus now on what is working, what isn’t, benefits realisation, productivity, efficiency, training, 
  • Complexity: So much going on…..managing capacity, cybersec, managing the complexity of the new IT estate, ensuring greater resource allocation with 2021 budgets, investments and leadership commitment to that 
  • Scaling and Transformation: The best firms – probably not many – are:
    •  firmly putting digital at the centre of corporate strategy
    • looking whether to build vs buy
    • aligning leaders on digital acumen so every CXO is a Chief Digital Officer for their function
    •  looking at wider opportunities for upskilling and digital adoption across the firm – so beyond infrastructure into more advanced worker productivity tools – automation, AI, analytics, superior Customer Experiences, New Business Models and Products/Services, Ecosystem Collaborations/Ventures
    • As well as more strategically, how to better organise and transform to become a digital business
  • Caution! Digital laggards will get left behind due to external forces and competitive intensity

On Trust + Safety:

  • So this is such a critical, complex and often overlooked dimension, mainly as it requires leaders to be empathetic and emotionally intelligent, and unfortunately many aren’t  
  • The BIG opportunity is that for the firms who get these complex dynamics right, will differentiate themselves from a talent retention and hiring perspective and become the new employers/brands of choice 2021+
  • But first we need to look at the state of play before COVID
  • In a nut-shell, there is very little trust, just need to look at amount of oversight, rules, policies, rule-choked processes and employees get this and know they aren’t trusted and even that their managers don’t think they are very capable
  • UK amount of discretion people have in jobs has been going down in last 20years
  • Only 1 out of 5 believe their opinions matter at work
  • Only 1 in 10 have the freedom to experiment with new solutions and methods
  • Most people can buy a car or house but same people in organisations can’t order a better £150 work chair without going through crazy internal hoops and hurdles
  • The way organisations are organised it is a caste system of managers and employees of thinkers/doers which causes disengagement of people from their work
  • Gallup surveys show only 20% of those highly engaged in their work – this is ALARMING so something needs to change
  • So against that backdrop you introduce a health and economic crisis of proportions never seen before, which impacts the human psyche in many different ways, and for most orgs you have a widening trust gap
  • Key impacts:
    • The “psychological contract” between employer/employee has also shifted for many
    • Traditional work assumptions have been challenged, firms must now not assume ‘old’ practices were the right ones
    • Acceleration of complex issues around safety, mental health, inclusivity, belonging, empathy, EQ, culture and behaviour, power dynamics, and expectations on leadership styles

Digital Ecosystems, Tzars, Puzzle Pieces, & The Halo Effect

This week I have had numerous informal discussions with different business leaders about the digital potential of Guernsey in the context of a COVID world. It got me thinking.

What are the key ingredients of an efficient digital and innovation ecosystem? What are the key pillars? If I was Digital Tzar for a day, what would I focus on?

I immediately thought back to my own entrepreneurial journey starting in 2011 in Shoreditch (London) when I left Accenture Consulting & co-founded The Social Experiences Club, one of the first European experiences and activities marketplaces. Along the way and following an exit I have advised, mentored, coached and consulted to many other entrepreneurs, VCs and corporates on everything from new venture development to business models to fundraising to hiring and firing.

Below I have provided a list of some key ‘ingredients’ to an efficient innovation and digital ecosystem. They are like pieces of a puzzle. There can’t be one without the other. Whilst there are wider factors required for success (e.g. smart, collaborative and decisive government), these are not the focus here.

Key Ingredients Of An Efficient Digital and Innovation Ecosystem:

  • Innovation-I think the focus on ‘digital’ is too narrow. Perhaps the better conversation is around how to foster new ways of thinking, working and investing (in technologies, skills, institutions etc), and how to provide the right infrastructure for anyone or any organisation to be able to build new solutions and deliver benefit, value and prosperity for consumers/citizens.
  • Commitment + Vision As with anything in business or life, a strong vision and commitment to that vision is required to create impact and make change happen. For the public-sector, having a strong technology and innovation policy is critical, and was the foundation of Estonia’s e-Government transformation  Even with such intent and will execution will be hard enough, but without this and appropriate support, resources and political capital, nothing will change.
  • IT InfrastructureThe pandemic has shown how strategic this asset class is to the future prosperity of nations – and will continue to be – which may require regulators to rethink approaches to regulation and competition. Without reliable and quality connectivity and access for all people at a fair price today or in the near future (e.g. 5G, fibre etc), economic and social growth could suffer and could lead to catastrophic long-term consequences. On regulation, balancing the strategic interests of nations and the telecom providers (who all have very different corporate strategies, business models and operating structures) is no doubt a difficult but critical balancing act, especially in light of COVID’s acceleration of digital services, access and inequality issues, and continued and future investments in next generation infrastructure (e.g. 5G). 
  • Centralised Governance A centralised market-focused unit as the knowledge and resource ‘hub’ responsible for digital activity can provide benefits for an emerging innovation ecosystem, especially where aspects of the infrastructure might be lacking. London had TechCity, although it was arguably overshadowed by the power of the entrenched historic networks of the wider ecosystem in terms of universities, commerce, government, and investment community. 
  • IncentivesSmart technology and innovation tax policies is critical to facilitate a more efficient and attractive market to build the wider entrepreneurship and corporate innovation ecosystem.

Support for business R&D can help to foster innovation and boost productivity. Investment in new technologies can also be supported through more generous depreciation deductions or immediate expensing – OECD Report (2018) – Tax Policies for Inclusive Growth in a Changing World

Incentives (whether EIS, SEIS, tax-breaks or otherwise) can encourage and unlock local (and overseas) private and corporate capital flows into start-ups/scale-ups. In 2011 when I was raising funds for a start-up in London in 2011, everywhere we went investors, accountants and lawyers would immediately ask the same question: are you EIS compliant? Clearly the years following the 2009/09 Financial Crisis was a massive boon for innovation with a huge supply of entrepreneurs choosing new paths and supported by an abundance of capital. 

Since its inception in 1993 the Enterprise Investment Scheme (EIS) has enabled UK companies to raise over £16 billion in investments. Of the 3,470 companies benefitting from the EIS Scheme in 2015/16 alone, 1,645 companies were raising funds for the first time, between them generating £997 million of investment – Thomas Jenner LLP 

On the supply-side, facilitating a more efficient is needed to generate an increasing supply of entrepreneurs able to access capital (plus ‘smart’ capital) especially at early stages. For companies, encouraging the development of in-house IP via R&D tax credits (or similar) (UK HMRC policy is here) could also have downstream benefits such as up skilling (depending on the policy), and can be aligned with any national Digital Vision.

  • e-Government For smaller nations, it is especially critical to invest in citizen-facing automation (e.g. paper-less) and improved customer experience opportunities across social security, ID, e-voting, e-health, data, e-signatures, and EdTech. Often government is the largest employer in smaller communities hence these investments can have outsized impacts and benefits. It also ‘opens’ the government up to being more accessible, transparent, and helpful in working with and facilitating the wider ecosystem.
  • Ecosystem – One of the key reasons why London has been able to become a global leader in innovation (especially FinTech) has been due to the infrastructure and network effects facilitated by a number of key factors. In particular, within a 1hour train ride you have leading universities (e.g. Oxbridge, LSE, UCL, Imperial etc), commerce, and government. It creates enormous opportunities for creativity and collaboration to flourish, share knowledge, and build relationships with every piece of the start-up puzzle, from enterprise clients, to talent, to regulators and so on. As a start-up co-founder in Shoreditch in 2011, you could easily do nothing but network and attend amazing events, meet ups, hackathons, talks, pitch competitions etc  every night. Whilst not every city or small community can replicate that, the principles and practices are there to be examined and implemented within whatever your specific context is.

“We are witnessing a rapid changing of the guard for global investment in innovation centers. The US and Europe have traditionally been viewed as dominant forces in innovation and technology but Asia could soon surpass the US for number of innovation centers built and operated. Moreover it is clear that funding alone is not enough — the success or failure of any innovation center hinges on how effectively it taps into the surrounding ecosystem, and the role it plays in driving a broader corporate innovation strategy – Eric Turkington, Director at Fahrenheit 212, part of the Capgemini Group

  • Talent/Skills – Education is critical for the future of innovation in a society. At K-12, schools need to be offering introductory (and advanced) knowledge-based and/or practical courses on digital topics whether entrepreneurship, digital marketing, Excel/Google Spreadsheets, coding, design thinking, or analytics. This creates opportunities for ‘start-up clubs’ and business idea/pitch competitions aligned with industry, which can provide pathways for hiring and investors. Businesses should also prioritise up skilling which includes investing in softer skills (e.g. communication, creativity, collaboration, empathy).

“Twenty years from now, if you are a coder, you might be out of a job,” Cuban predicted. “Because it’s just math and so, whatever we’re defining the A.I. to do, someone’s got to know the topic. If you’re doing an A.I. to emulate Shakespeare, somebody better know Shakespeare”. – Mark Cuban

In addition, it is critical to learn new ways of working and thinking (e.g. agile, lean, design), and how to significantly improve inclusivity and diversity initiatives for existing talent (and future hires). At the higher education level, it is no surprise that some of the best known ecosystems (from Hollywood to Silicon Valley) have top-tier universities in close proximity. A centralised knowledge, teaching and research centre for technology and related skills and excellence must be a high-priority for any region without this. Also, making it easier or more flexible to hire overseas talent and plug skill-gaps in high-priority areas – whether software, analytics, UX or engineering – should also be considered, especially as this removes the friction for individuals or companies to pursue innovation.

  • Specialism It certainly helps to be known and famous for a certain speciality. London has done well to intentionally (or accidentally) carve out a ‘brand’ around FinTech which leverages the reputation, expertise and talent in that sector, although it is still active in many other sectors. This helps with the halo effect to build an ecosystem around that which then flows out into other areas. 
  • ExamplesThe halo effect above also extends to when there has been one or more successful start-ups and entrepreneurs who have moved though the start-up stages i.e. idea to exit. In a similar way that we celebrate sports stars and use them as aspirational icons for children and others, this can be used to inspire the next generation of entrepreneurs. If the right examples exist, we need to profile them and start holding them up examples of what can be possible (and using them as mentors).
  • Intellectual Property – Historically patents have been used a measure of R&D and innovation – and hence subject to tax breaks – but since 2000s software development has become a critical focus. Incentivising corporate investment into building out in-house IP vs using an overseas agency/service provider may provide local benefits and stimulate the local digital skills ecosystem.
  • Pathways Programmes for potential entrepreneurs whether at school or higher-education or post-university to educate prospective entrepreneurs. To be effective it requires all of these initiatives to be in place or in-flight
  • Collaboration – A critical digital ‘soft-skill’, without a collaborative approach and mindset amongst key participants – coupled with the strongest of commitments from smart government – attempts to develop and execute on a digital vision will struggle. This needs to be baked into any refreshed governance supported by strong top-down commitment.
  • Experimentation – Modern start-up development relies on many small experiments: start with a small hypothesis, test, learn, iterate, build, repeat. Government therefore needs to be more comfortable with this way of working to ensure progress is made versus spending years analysing and/or smothering creativity with bureaucratic processes which ultimately delivers nothing or very little. In the midst of an ongoing pandemic, unprecedented government spending, and a reduction in tax revenues, the Government must work differently and smarter in order to be more accountable to taxpayers and deliver benefit, value and sustainable progress for citizens.

 

 

First And Second Order COVID Impacts

Every day there is a new story or report on how COVID will impact X, whether business, industry sector, country, health, your brain, and so on. This has been going for months, and obviously will continue for a long time.

In fact yesterday I posted about this in relation to the island I live (Guernsey).

I’ve since started a very basic list of these impacts. I’ve divided up into first order (direct) and second order impacts (indirect). I haven’t done so but I will need to categorise them.

Over time I’ll aim to build up in a database and post updates here. In the meantime, please feel to comment or add your perspectives here or on the socials.

First Order Impacts

  • Reduction of in-bound and outbound business and leisure travel
  • Increasing shift to online business development and sales
  • Increased e-commerce and local delivery needs
  • Increased demand for flexible and remote working
  • Increased home office improvement needs
  • Shifting social and psychological contract for workers and consumers
  • Increasing focus on mental health, wellbeing, worker and customer safety, trust
  • Office rationalisation due to safety measures and demand for flexible working
  • Smarter, frictionless offices with more automation, smartphone ID, facial recognition and refit for more experiential work e.g. client meets, collaboration, workshops, creativity, training
  • Increased demand for more use cases beyond shopping for contactless payments and frictionless ordering e.g. restaurants, cafes
  • Commercial real estate, higher education and executive training, and hospitality models upended

 Second Order Impacts

  • Trust, safety, culture differentiator for certain workplaces in areas
  • Potential migration away from over-populated major cities (e.g. UK) into second cities, regional or coastal areas
  • Universities unlikely to open meaning a significant number of ‘gap’ years for 18 year olds
  • Existing older leaders aim to cement positions and hold on to ‘power’ or a changing of the guard for new perspectives
  • Changing mix of workforce with more comfort for a ‘talent anywhere’ model
  • Requirement for more flexible resourcing with demand for more specialised contract and freelancers
  • New sectors developing hybrid on/offline business models for smarter, more relevant customer experiences e.g. education, gyms, training, retail
  • More public and private infrastructure development
  • Talent anywhere to hire the best wherever they are
  • Smarter, frictionless, reconfigured offices which may be provided as a perk
  • Smart phone use cases in-store increase e.g. digital ID, office access, ordering in-store
  • Privacy issues around any contact tracing services
  • Retail high-streets and commercial workplaces continue to transform with more residential housing

The Big Opportunities for Guernsey (& Other Island Nations)

*This blog post was written on 3rd July but not posted until 4th August. It formed part of the The REIGNITE 2020 Report but in the final edits I decided to take it and post separately. Whilst it has not been updated since writing, many of the points remain relevant. The post was written for discussion purposes and not designed to be exhaustive, detailed or rigorous. 

As attention turns to recovery and rebuilding through the States of Guernsey’s Revive And Thrive Strategy, the challenge for the private and public sector will be in using the crisis as an intentional opportunity to boldly rethink ambitions, and adapt and execute quickly and creatively in the post-pandemic world. This is also especially important as the need respond with agility to future relapses will be likely as Guernsey balances economic recovery with health and safety.

A key risk for the future of Guernsey is that this opportunity is lost as people, firms and government simply return to ‘old’ ways of thinking, working and operating. The benefits of excellent health risk management in Guernsey may have unintended consequences, but only if local leaders and policymakers fail to take up the new call to action.

Whilst the data from 335 Guernsey leaders and business owners surveyed in The REIGNITE! 2020 Report indicated significant impacts for many Guernsey organisations, others have been able to respond with new offerings and ways of working, and accelerated investments into new technologies and processes.

We used this ‘impact’ data to categorise patterns and themes of impacts for Guernsey at large. Whilst by no means exhaustive (with many applicable globally), a few of these  include the following:

First Order Impacts

  • Reduction of in-bound and outbound business and leisure travel
  • Increasing shift to online business development and sales
  • Increased e-commerce and local delivery needs
  • Increased demand for flexible and remote working
  • Increased home office improvement needs
  • Shifting social and psychological contract for workers and consumers
  • Increasing focus on mental health, wellbeing, worker and customer safety, trust
  • Office rationalisation due to safety measures and demand for flexible working
  • Smarter, frictionless offices with more automation, smartphone ID, facial recognition and refit for more experiential work e.g. client meets, collaboration, workshops, creativity, training
  • Increased demand for more use cases beyond shopping for contactless payments and frictionless ordering e.g. restaurants, cafes
  • Commercial real estate, higher education and executive training, and hospitality models upended

 Second Order Impacts

  • Trust, safety, culture differentiator for certain workplaces in areas
  • Potential migration away from over-populated major cities (e.g. UK) into second cities, regional or coastal areas
  • Universities unlikely to open meaning a significant number of ‘gap’ years for 18 year olds
  • Existing older leaders aim to cement positions and hold on to ‘power’ or a changing of the guard for new perspectives
  • Changing mix of workforce with more comfort for a ‘talent anywhere’ model
  • Requirement for more flexible resourcing with demand for more specialised contract and freelancers
  • New sectors developing hybrid on/offline business models for smarter, more relevant customer experiences e.g. education, gyms, training, retail
  • More public and private infrastructure development
  • Talent anywhere to hire the best wherever they are
  • Smarter, frictionless, reconfigured offices which may be provided as a perk
  • Smart phone use cases in-store increase e.g. digital ID, office access, ordering in-store
  • Privacy issues around any contact tracing services
  • Retail high-streets and commercial workplaces continue to transform with more residential housing

Opportunities for Guernsey

Based on the survey data and analysis, the following non-exhaustive list of opportunities were identified. All will require smart, fast-moving and collaborative government to accelerate existing initiatives (e.g. Green Finance) and to think and act creatively, boldly and collaboratively on new initiatives to maximise economic development across a variety of areas:

  • Guernsey Vision: Agree a refreshed shared, common vision for the future of Guernsey in light of the new world and Guernsey capabilities, and accelerate initiatives to implement
  • Safety-As-A-Service: New business opportunities for existing or a new set of service providers to help businesses to set-up, maintain and ensure ongoing COVID-19 health and safety compliance
  • Safe Haven: Position Guernsey as a safer destination for UK/Jersey/France travellers or any individuals, families or businesses looking to relocate from overseas to Guernsey, especially when UK and other nations’ travel restrictions loosen;
  • Staycations: Hospitality to create new, tailored and segmented packages, experiences and integrated offerings to attract the spend of local Guernsey residents which traditionally goes off-shore
  • Cross-Placements: Another strategy for acquiring talent is cross-placement, which involves finding hidden talent from other industries that can be redeployed for your company.
  • Public Works: Fast-track known public expenditure projects (e.g. Seafront, Airport etc) and encourage new public-private partnerships to upgrade, regenerate, and redevelop areas plus provide employment, create new businesses, and support existing businesses (e.g. hospitality)
  • Centre(s) of Excellence: Whether this is in Fin or RiskTech, Green Finance or other areas, Guernsey has untapped potential and needs to build up an ‘innovation cluster’ of capabilities in close collaboration with the private-sector (or new unit), and firmly commit, invest, enable, and market these unique capabilities
  • Entrepreneurship: Accelerate investor incentives (e.g. EIS) and other measures to encourage start-ups or scale-ups with increased flows of early-stage capital
  • Commercial Property: With many vacant properties sitting idle – which is              now likely to increase- encourage owners to off-load properties and/or provide more flexible planning and incentives to allow new investors, generations,  and alternative business uses to thrive
  • Corona Corp: Create a ‘Guernsey Corp’ of school-leavers or university students who now may not leave the island to start or continue University to work on Government COVID-19 rebuild initiatives e.g. apprentice schemes
  • Government Automation: Rapidly increase the online self-service capabilities of Government departments, transform across the back-end and front-ends, and experiment with new solutions (e.g. Digital ID)
  • Regulatory: Regulators will take a lot of lessons from how the financial sector performs during the COVID-19 lockdowns, both in terms of finding out what existing processes and tools worked best plus new technologies, but also identifying vulnerabilities that need to be addressed by future standard-setting.
  • University: It is highly likely that despite parents wanting to ‘off-load’ their teenagers from the house, many Guernsey students may not go back to the UK due to COVID uncertainty and risks. Whilst COVID will cause many UK universities who offer Hyuandai-quality certifications for a Mercedes price to push harder into online learning (or offer diminished campus experiences), this will happen against a backdrop of increasing deferral rates, supply challenges for mid-tier schools without a deep wait-list, and an inability to cut costs. Many mid-tier universities and colleges will close whilst others too reliant on international students and without strong business and financial models begin a slow death-march. Perhaps this presents an opportunity for Guernsey to facilitate, improve the offering of an existing higher-education provider, partner, or build a University-type solution, skills academy or certification provider in a ‘safe’ local environment to develop the most locally relevant skills to support both the FS and wider sectors. This is a critical component for Guernsey’s future competitiveness especially in a COVID world. If these conversations and plans have already been discussed, they should be fast-tracked.